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Boise Builders Bullish: What Does This Mean for Home Buyers and Sellers?

The winds of change are blowing in the Boise, Idaho housing market, and it’s not just the chill of the mountains. Builder confidence is on the rise, signaling a potential shift in the local real estate landscape. But what does this mean for you, whether you’re a homeowner looking to sell or a hopeful buyer searching for your dream home? Let’s dive into the data and decipher its implications.

Confidence Climbs: A Beacon of Optimism

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for the Boise area tells the story. In October 2023, the index jumped to 35, a 10-point increase compared to the previous year. This indicates a significant boost in builder sentiment, suggesting they anticipate favorable market conditions in the coming months.

Decoding the Numbers: What’s Driving the Optimism?

Several factors contribute to this newfound confidence. While rising interest rates and construction material costs are concerns, the demand for housing in Boise remains strong. The city’s continued population growth, coupled with a limited existing inventory, fuels buyer interest. Additionally, forecasts predict a modest increase in home prices by the end of 2024, further enticing builders to capitalize on the market. For an in-depth analysis of the 2024 home price forecast, check out:

The Blueprint: How Boise builders are moving inventory

  • Consumer Research: Treasure Valley builders are addressing one of the key issues in today’s housing market: affordability. A September survey by U.S. real-estate industry consultants John Burns Research & Consulting pinpointed the magic interest rate number at 5.5%. Nearly three-quarters of respondents who plan to purchase their next home with a mortgage said “they are not willing to accept” a mortgage rate above that 5.5% figure, the company reported.
  • Concessions:  Two of the largest builders (by volume) in the Treasure Valley, CBH & Hubble, increased their median sales concessions from $8,000 in 2022 to just over $10,000 in 2023. Often, these concessions are used to pay down a buyers interest rate.
  • In-House Interest Rate Promotions: Two national builders in the Treasure Valley, Toll Brothers & Lennar, have subsidiary mortgage lending companies. This allowed Lennar to offer some enticing incentives in January 2024, including a fixed mortgage rate of 5.375%, if a buyer used their in-house lender.

Implications for Buyers:

  • Increased Competition: With builders potentially ramping up construction, the number of available homes could rise. This translates to more options for buyers, but also potentially fiercer competition, especially for highly desirable properties. Being prepared with pre-approval and a competitive offer will be crucial.
  • Shifting Price Dynamics: While prices are expected to rise, the pace of increase will be moderate compared previous year’s rapid growth. This could offer some breathing room for buyers, but remember, affordability remains a key concern.
  • Negotiation Opportunities: With more inventory available, buyers might have more leverage in negotiations, especially for newly constructed homes. However, this doesn’t guarantee significant price reductions, so thorough research and understanding market value are essential.

Implications for Sellers:

  • Stable Market Conditions: The rise in builder confidence suggests a sustained demand for housing, potentially leading to a seller-friendly market. However, it’s crucial to remember that market dynamics can shift quickly.
  • Pricing Strategies: Accurately pricing your home based on current market trends and recent comparable sales will attract serious buyers and ensure a smooth selling process. Get started on pricing your home with a free home value report at:
  • Marketing Opportunities: With more competition on the horizon, effective marketing and highlighting your home’s unique selling points will be essential to stand out from the crowd.

The Bottom Line:

Rising builder confidence reflects optimism in the Boise housing market, but it’s not a guarantee of smooth sailing. For both buyers and sellers, staying informed, understanding market trends, and employing strategic approaches are key to navigating this evolving landscape. Remember, data is your friend, so utilize market reports and consult with experienced real estate professionals to make informed decisions and achieve your real estate goals.

For more data-driven insights and market analytics, please visit me at:

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